Risk management in logistics, version 19, ENGECON

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Uploaded: 31.07.2013
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Task 1. What methods are used to estimate the dependence of the risk factors and the results of the logistics of the time, if the trend is clearly distinguished development process?

Task 2. Determine the stock of financial strength and force of the impact of operating leverage and answer the question. Revenue from the sale of transport services is in the variable costs - Zper., Fixed costs - Zpost. The initial data and the number of questions for the job are shown in Table 2. 1.
Analyze the sensitivity of the model to changes in the break-even fixed costs.
Table 1 - Initial data for the task 2
Alternative Revenue, RUR. Variable costs, rubles. Fixed costs, rubles. Question number Percentage change fixed costs
19 186450 78643 33450 10 April

Task 3. The company sells perishable product. Stocks of the product can not be stored more than one month. The volume of orders Product production unit planned at the beginning of each month, at the order purchased the necessary raw materials. Costs of production comprise Sn, the price of production of the CPU.
Unfortunately, the demand for this product varies from month to month. If demand exceeds the planned volume of the product, there are losses of income as demand should be satisfied at once, in a given month. If the batch was greater demand (offer redundant), the firm is forced to bear the loss. Demand analysis revealed that the demand varies from C1 to C3, the demand is low C1 and C2 - medium, C3 demand - high. The probability of low demand of P1, P2, medium, high -R3.
Given the levels of potential demand make a decision tree that covers all the opportunities offered to the firm, as well as their outcomes. What is the volume of production should be ordered to maximize profits?
Baseline data are presented in Table 2.
Table 2 - Initial data for setting 3
Option Costs of production, Sn, rub. / T. Price, CPU rub. / T Demand, ie. Probability
low, medium C1, C2 is high, the C3 low demand, medium demand P1, P2, high demand, P3
19 24 000 40 000 10 20 30 0.3 0.6 0.1



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