Simulation of the real estate market

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Uploaded: 21.02.2009
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2002

Введение.........................................................................................4
Chapter 1: Characteristics, structure and features of the market
недвижимости...................................................................................9
1.1 Characteristics, structure and subjects of the real estate market .......... 9
1.2 Milestones, laws of functioning
and characteristics of the domestic real estate market .............. 22
1.3 The relationship of primary and secondary market housing in a reformed economy
(On the example of Moscow) ........................................... ............ 3 b
1.4 Conclusions on the first chapter of ............................................. ......... 49
Chapter 2. The econometric model residential real estate market ............ 52
2.1 Econometric modeling as a method for studying the relationship and prediction of economic indicators ....... 52
2.2 Features of real estate valuation and initial prerequisites for building
forecast home prices .................................... 66
2.3 The linear model predicting sales prices
in the secondary market .............................................. .... 71
2.4 The power model of forecasting of sales prices
in the secondary market .............................................. .... 78
2.5 Comparative evaluation of predictive models
home prices .............................................. ..85
2.6 Indices of the real estate market dynamics
changes in macroeconomic factors ............................... 86
2.7 Conclusions on the second chapter of ............................................. ......... 97
Chapter 3. Model selection of the optimal strategy
Investment in residential housing construction ............ 103
3.1. Economic and legal basis of motivations institutional investor market
residential real estate ................................................ ....... 103
3.2. The script and the strategies of institutional investors in the market of construction of residential real estate ........... 113
3.3. Models and algorithms for the optimal formation
strategy of institutional investor .............................. 121
3.4. The conclusions of the third chapter of .............................................. ..... 130
Summary and conclusions ............................................... ..................... 133
References ................................................ ........................ 136
Приложения.................................................................................144
Appendix 1. The process of formation and development
residential real estate market (for example, the city of Moscow) ..................... 144
Appendix 2. Statistical base econometric model ......... 157
Appendix Z.Akt of experimental testing and implementation of software and software tools ................................. 195

Additional information

********* ******** Excerpts from diploma

Chapter 3. Model selection of the optimal investment strategy-ing construction of residential Real property.

3.1. Economic and legal basis of motivations institu¬tsionalnogo investor in residential real estate market.
Market transformation of the housing sector - one of the most acute and social problems in transition eko¬nomiki. Replacing social forms of housing construction and sales in the current market zhi¬lya form occurs painful and unstable, that is an objective reflection of the results of the first stages of reform of the Russian economy. At the current stage of development of the residential nedvizhimo¬sti, as reflected in the first chapter, positive results in the creation and structuring of the housing market and housing services, diver¬sifikatsii funding sources and the general structure of the housing stroi¬telstva, improve the quality of typical houses and apartments , the diversity of their raz¬merov and planning. However, the development of market relations in the housing sector is experiencing a number of significant difficulties. These include:
- The existence of a significant imbalance between supply and demand in the housing market associated with the imperfection of the existing mechanisms of co-harmonization;
- Low availability and, as a consequence, the narrowness of demand for commercial housing under the present conditions and modalities of its implementation and the achieved level of incomes and savings of the population;
- Underdevelopment of credit facilities in housing stroitelst¬va, especially mortgages.
The solution of the complex problems of formation and selection of the optimal strategies of institutional investors in the housing construction market requires the most accurate prediction of market parameters. And it
As for as the bulk of indicators characterizing the dynamics of the "supply and demand" and financial indicators characterizing struk¬turu and volumes of different sources of raising funds -proper, budgetary and extra-budgetary, credit and cost characteristics of housing and price trends on the ¬litiki in the housing market. Obviously, the stability and predictability poli¬ticheskoy (legislative) and economic (social) environment are factors contributing to the stability and predictability investitsion¬no-building activities.
Consider the situation in the investment and construction complex in Moscow.
The gradual decline of profitability of investments in the capital nedvizhi¬most - a consequence of the stabilization of the real estate market. Moscow is following the path that has already passed many cities in Central and Eastern Europe, although the rental rates and prices per square meter in Moscow objects are in most cases much more advanced level. Analysts pro¬gnoziruyut further decline in profitability developers [103, 105]. Superprofits that existed a few years ago in residential construction, as well as in the construction of commercial real estate, no longer exists. Real win big investors, ready to meet less than before, profitability and lengthen okupaemo¬sti projects. Even the best projects in the field of housing bring zastroy¬schikam 15% per annum on equity after payment of loans [22], and if the construction is carried out exclusively at his own expense, the margin could reach 25-30%. As bank interest rates on loans are reduced dol¬gosrochnym and credit becomes available, the majority of the pain-institutional investors prefer to use kredit¬nye resources. Analysts say [105] that in a truly elite pro¬ektah return on reselling purchased in the early stages of building an apartment can reach 20 - 50% per annum or $ 1,000 to the 1st quarter. m. If inve¬stor involved in the construction as a partner, the yield can dosti¬gat 100%. In the high efficiency of investments in suburban real estate price increase affects the quality of the Earth - on average

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