Trend forecasting models + task

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Uploaded: 04.07.2013
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Description

Task 1. Summary
Trend forecasting models

Task 2
Initial data
GDP tech Capital (1972) Work of GDP (1980)
12.9 212 1037 32.3
1035 13.6 219.1 34.2
14.3 226 1028 35.6
1828 37.4 15 233.7
1036 15.9 241.3 38.5
1049 16.6 250.5 40.4
17.7 261.6 1061 43
1881 18.6 273.1 45.3
1107 20.1 289.6 49.6
21.6 301 1157 53
22.9 '314 1 177 54.6
26.2 328 1129 58.3
29 342.8 1180 60
1227 32.4 358.8 60.3
34.3 374.9 1223 62
1213 42.7 387.4 64.9
1271 47.6 398.1 64.1
53.3, 410.7 1286 64.6
1326 58.1 423.8 66.1
58.7 '1354 435.4 66.9
68.7 448 1405 68.7
1426 80.8 459.4 74.8
1428 92.5 474.1 74.7
104 481.7 1464 78.0 '
113.2 490 1499 82
122 1484 502.7 86.4
The goal - to develop a forecast of economic development for 5 years in the form of estimates of GDP (gross domestic product) at current prices.
Objectives of the work:
1. built 8 models forecast GDP at current prices (Y):
The wording of the model number Content
1 Trend Y1 = F (t)
The multiplicative decomposition:
2 GDP at basic prices (Y0) • inflation index (I) Y2 = Y0 • I
3 Number of employees (L) • productivity (LP) Y3 = L • LP
4 Capital (K) • Capital productivity (KP) • inflation Y4 = K • KP • I
5 • Number of employed capital intensity (KV) • Capital productivity • Inflation Y5 = L • KV • K • I
Regression to:
6, capital, labor and time (linear regression) Y6 = aK + bL + ct + d
7 capital and labor (the regression type of the Cobb-Douglas) Y7 = A • Ka • Lb
8 capital, labor and time (regression type Cobb-Douglas) Y8 = A • Ka • Lb • eg t
2. To compare the model predictions with each other. If the range of values \u200b\u200bat the end of 5 years exceeds 30% - perepostroit model, with a view to harmonizing their forecasts.
3. Make a conclusion about the history and prospects of the economy.

Additional information

14 pages + 2 file in Excel

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